PICKEM POKER STRATEGY
Pickem Poker Strategy
Pickem Poker strategy is based on expected value. At the decision point, you compare two three-card partial holdings while two hidden cards still remain under each visible choice.
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The Four-Card Decision
A two-stack Pickem Poker decision begins with two fixed exposed cards on the left. On the right, Choice A has one visible card on top of a three-card stack, and Choice B has one visible card on top of another three-card stack. You keep only one stack. The unchosen stack is discarded, and the two hidden cards beneath the selected visible card complete the final five-card hand.
For strategy work, the two fixed cards and both visible choice cards are already known. That means all four visible cards are removed from the unseen deck before either side is evaluated. The educational trainer may reveal both final stacks afterward for review, but that is a teaching aid, not information available at the decision point.
Why There Are 1,128 Completions
A standard deck has 52 cards. Once the two fixed cards and the two visible choice cards are known, 48 unseen cards remain. For either side, the selected visible card needs two unordered hidden cards.
The exact five-credit EV for one side is the sum of the payouts from all 1,128 legal completions divided by 1,128. A normal player should not do that arithmetic at the machine. The point is to understand what the trainer is doing and why the chart is a practical shortcut.
Blockers, exposed cards, and exact EV
All four visible cards are already removed from the unseen deck. The alternate choice card is therefore a blocker: it can remove a Royal-completion card, remove a pair card, or alter Straight, Flush, Full House, and Four-of-a-Kind routes. Two visually similar partial hands may have different exact EV because the fourth exposed card is not neutral.
Historical video-poker writing often calls this kind of card a penalty card: a visible card whose presence reduces the value of a possible hold. In Pickem Poker, the effect should be demonstrated rather than assumed. For example, with fixed A♣ K♣ and choices Q♣ and J♣, neither side can complete the Royal Flush because the other required Royal card is already exposed as the alternate choice. See the odds guide for the full card-removal lesson.
Reference Chart EV Versus Exact-Deal EV
The 31-row strategy chart is a practical full-pay category hierarchy. Its printed EV values are published category-reference values: they rank broad three-card shapes such as high pairs, low pairs, three-card Flush holdings, and Straight Flush structures.
Those printed values are not the same display units as the trainer's five-credit exact EV, and they are not necessarily the exact value of every individual four-card deal that belongs to a row. The fourth exposed card is known and unavailable among the 48 unseen cards. Removing that one card can change the exact completion distribution for a specific deal.
EV unit check: Published chart EV is expressed per credit wagered. The trainer displays total expected credits for a fixed five-credit wager, so multiply a published chart value by five to compare it with the trainer's five-credit scale.
Low Pair published reference EV: 1.1418 per credit. Five-credit conversion: 1.1418 × 5 = 5.7090 credits. Exact worked-deal value: 5.7092 credits.
The exact deal can differ from a broad published category benchmark because the row groups multiple rank-and-suit patterns, the alternate visible card removes one specific card from the unseen deck, and the published benchmark is rounded. The chart should therefore be used for category learning, while the trainer should be used for one exact four-card decision.
Use the chart to learn the general ranking system. Use the trainer when you want to check one exact four-card decision, because it evaluates both sides over all 1,128 legal completions under the stated paytable.
How to Classify a Three-Card Holding
- Combine the two fixed cards with Choice A.
- Assign the highest applicable category from the chart.
- Repeat the same process with Choice B.
- Choose the higher category, or use exact EV when reviewing a close or unusual hand.
Categories overlap, so always use the highest row that describes the holding. Q-J-10 suited qualifies as three to a Royal Flush, three to a Straight Flush, three to a Flush, three to a Straight, and three high cards; it uses the special Q-J-10 suited category. A-K-Q suited qualifies as Ace-high three to a Royal and as a three-card Flush with three high cards; it uses the higher Royal category. 9-10-J suited uses the no-gap Straight Flush category. A-Q-9 suited is not three to a Royal. It is three to a Flush with three high cards.
Exact Royal-Flush Groups
A three-card Royal Flush holding must use three suited ranks selected only from 10, J, Q, K, and A. All three cards must share one suit.
A-Q-9 suited and A-J-9 suited are not Royal holdings, because 9 is not part of 10-J-Q-K-A.
Pairs and Three of a Kind
Three of a Kind is the top category in the published full-pay hierarchy. It starts as a paying structure and still has two hidden cards available to improve to a Full House or Four of a Kind.
A high pair is 9-9 through A-A. A low pair is 2-2 through 8-8. A visible high pair is already a paying partial structure, but it can still improve. A low pair ranks below several premium draws, yet above many weaker straight and flush structures. These pair classifications apply to the three visible cards, not to a guessed final hand.
Straight, Flush, and Straight-Flush Classification
In this published full-pay chart, a high card means 9, 10, J, Q, K, or A. Suit matters only when all three visible cards share one suit for a three-card Flush or Straight Flush category. Fewer gaps normally create more completion routes, and the number of high cards breaks ties between similar shapes. Aces can work high in 10-J-Q-K-A or low in A-2-3-4-5.
Do not reduce the Straight Flush rows to "any three consecutive suited cards." The published chart gives 2-3-4 suited special treatment: it appears in the next Straight Flush tier, while the top no-gap/open tier begins with 3-4-5 suited and runs through 9-10-J suited. 3-4-5 is an open three-card Straight structure. At the bottom edge of the rank sequence, 2-3-4 has fewer ways to form a five-card Straight and must not be treated as the same open structure.
Full Exact-EV Worked Example
Fixed cards: 4♣ and 6♣. Choice A: 8♣. Choice B: 4♦. Choice A creates 4♣ 6♣ 8♣, three to a two-gap Straight Flush with no high cards. Choice B creates 4♣ 6♣ 4♦, a low pair.
Choice A: 4♣ 6♣ 8♣
- 1 Straight Flush
- 44 Flushes
- 15 Straights
- 7 Three of a Kind
- 21 Two Pair
- 36 Pairs of Nines or Better
- 1,004 non-paying hands
(1 × 1199) + (44 × 75) + (15 × 55) + (7 × 25) + (21 × 15) + (36 × 10) = 6,174 total payout credits.
Exact EV: 6,174 / 1,128 = 5.4734 credits per five-credit wager.
Choice B: 4♣ 6♣ 4♦
- 1 Four of a Kind
- 9 Full Houses
- 86 Three of a Kind
- 192 Two Pair
- 840 non-paying hands
(1 × 600) + (9 × 90) + (86 × 25) + (192 × 15) = 6,440 total payout credits.
Exact EV: 6,440 / 1,128 = 5.7092 credits per five-credit wager.
Choice B, the low pair, is better by about 0.2358 credits per five-credit wager. This is a good example of why a made pair can outrank a visually tempting suited structure.
Same Broad Row, Different Exact EV
Fixed cards: 8♣ and 9♣. Choice A: 6♣. Choice B: J♣. Both partial holdings belong to the same broad published row: three to a Straight Flush, one gap, five through queen high.
Choice A: 6♣ 8♣ 9♣
- 2 Straight Flushes
- 34 Flushes
- 30 Straights
- 9 Three of a Kind
- 27 Two Pair
- 144 Pairs of Nines or Better
- 882 nonpaying hands
Total payout credits: 8,668. Exact EV: 8,668 / 1,128 = 7.6844 credits.
Choice B: 8♣ 9♣ J♣
- 2 Straight Flushes
- 34 Flushes
- 30 Straights
- 9 Three of a Kind
- 27 Two Pair
- 258 Pairs of Nines or Better
- 768 nonpaying hands
Total payout credits: 9,808. Exact EV: 9,808 / 1,128 = 8.6950 credits.
Choice B is better by approximately 1.0106 credits. The premium Straight Flush, Flush, Straight, Trips, and Two Pair counts are identical on both sides, but J-8-9 contains more ranks that can finish as a paying Pair of Nines or Better: 258 paying-pair completions instead of 144. Broad rows are learning tools, not exact-deal equivalence classes.
True High Pair Versus Ace-High Royal Example
Fixed cards: A♣ and K♣. Choice A: A♦. Choice B: Q♣. Choice A is A♣ K♣ A♦, a high pair of aces. Choice B is A♣ K♣ Q♣, a true Ace-high three to a Royal Flush.
Exact four-card EV: Choice A = 13.1560 credits. Choice B = 12.4069 credits.
The pair of aces is the correct selection. The static hierarchy also puts a high pair above Ace-high three to a Royal. Do not treat all Royal draws as stronger than all made pairs.
Three-Card Flush Example
Fixed cards: A♦ and 9♦. Choice A: 6♦. Choice B: J♦. A-9-6 suited is three to a Flush with two high cards. A-J-9 suited is three to a Flush with three high cards. Choice B ranks higher. It is not a Royal draw, because 9 is not a Royal rank.
Decision Quality Versus Result
The higher-EV selection may reveal a non-paying hand. The lower-EV selection may reveal a winning hand. That does not reverse which choice was correct before the hidden cards were known. Strategy quality is judged from the information available at the decision point: the two fixed cards, the two visible choice cards, and the active paytable. Final payout measures one result, not the quality of the choice.
This is why the trainer is useful. It lets you review the expected value of the decision after the hand without pretending that the revealed hidden cards were available beforehand.
Ties
Some choices have exactly equal EV because their rank and suit patterns are symmetric after the same four visible cards are removed from the deck. Either selection is correct in an exact tie. The trainer uses a very small numerical tolerance to identify equal values, but a tie in EV does not mean the two revealed final hands must produce the same payout.
Common Strategy Errors
- Treating any three suited high cards as three to a Royal.
- Counting Jacks as the minimum high pair instead of Nines.
- Choosing based on the hidden-card result after it is revealed.
- Forgetting that the other visible choice card is already removed from the unseen deck.
- Using the full-pay hierarchy on a different paytable without checking the active table.
- Using a lower category when the same cards qualify for a higher overlapping category.
- Assuming "suited" automatically makes a holding better.
- Confusing three to a straight with a guaranteed completed straight.
Study Order
Start with the Strategy Chart, then use the Free Trainer for exact-deal practice. The Paytable and RTP page explain why paytable changes matter.
Paytable Limitation
Every strategy statement on this page assumes the historical full-pay reference schedule unless explicitly stated otherwise. A changed Straight, Full House, Royal Flush, Straight Flush, Four of a Kind, or other payout can change EV. Close decisions should be recalculated for the live paytable. This page does not claim that any named casino currently offers the full-pay version.
Sources and Methodology
Published reference: historical hierarchy, paytable, and return context were checked against Wizard of Odds Pick ’em Poker strategy and return tables, Henry Tamburin’s Pick ’Em Poker explanation, and Beating Bonuses Pickem Poker reference and calculator context.
PickemPoker.com calculation: exact-deal examples, blocker examples, and completion counts were independently enumerated over all 1,128 legal two-card completions using the visible four-card deal and the stated five-credit paytable.
Live status: these historical references do not establish current casino availability or prove any live casino paytable.