Last updated: April 2026
Session inputs
How the calculator works
Every output is derived from your inputs using the actual math behind Pickem Poker variance β not rough guesses.
Bet per hand is simply denomination Γ coins. At $1.00 denomination and 5 coins that's $5.00 per hand β the standard max-coin dollar game.
Total coin-in is bet per hand Γ planned hands. This is your gross wagering exposure before any returns. A 300-hand session at $5.00/hand = $1,500 coin-in.
Theoretical expected loss is coin-in Γ (1 β RTP). On a full-pay 9/6 game at 99.95% RTP, a $1,500 coin-in session theoretically loses $0.75. That sounds impossibly small β because RTP is a very long-run average. Short sessions are dominated by variance, not expected value.
Recommended bankroll is calculated as: bet per hand Γ risk multiplier. The risk multiplier varies by your comfort selection β Aggressive uses ~60Γ, Balanced uses ~100Γ, Cautious uses ~150Γ, Very Cautious uses ~220Γ. These multipliers are calibrated to Pickem Poker's variance profile, where non-paying hands occur ~47% of the time and sessions can streak badly before a premium hand rebalances the result.
Realistic swing range is estimated using a simplified variance model: standard deviation per hand β 5.5Γ bet size for Pickem Poker at full-pay, scaled by βhands for session-level standard deviation. The range shown covers approximately Β±1.5 standard deviations β roughly 87% of sessions land within this range. About 13% of sessions land outside it in either direction.
Common planning mistakes this tool helps you avoid
| Mistake | Why it matters | What to do instead |
|---|---|---|
| Playing $1 denomination at sub-max coins to save bankroll | Drops RTP by ~3%. Costs more than just using a lower denomination at max coins. | Move to $0.25 denomination, play max 5 coins ($1.25/hand) |
| Bringing only the "expected loss" amount as your bankroll | Expected loss is near zero on full-pay. Your actual swings can be Β±30% of coin-in in a single session. | Use the recommended bankroll figure, not the expected loss figure |
| Playing 500+ hands when your bankroll only supports 200 | Session volume determines total exposure. Running out mid-session leads to tilt decisions. | Match planned hands to a bankroll that covers at least 1.5Γ the recommended amount |
| Choosing a reduced paytable because the casino looks good otherwise | A 8/5 game at $1.25/hand costs ~$28 more in expected loss per 500 hands than a full-pay 9/6 game | Check Full House and Flush payouts before playing. Use the paytable quality input above. |
Bankroll by denomination β quick reference
For a balanced-risk 300-hand session at max coins (5 coins), here's what the calculator outputs across denominations on a full-pay table:
| Denomination | Bet/hand | Coin-in (300 hands) | Recommended bankroll | Expected loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.25 | $1.25 | $375 | ~$125 | ~$0.19 |
| $0.50 | $2.50 | $750 | ~$250 | ~$0.38 |
| $1.00 | $5.00 | $1,500 | ~$500 | ~$0.75 |
| $2.00 | $10.00 | $3,000 | ~$1,000 | ~$1.50 |
| $5.00 | $25.00 | $7,500 | ~$2,500 | ~$3.75 |
The expected loss column looks surprisingly small β that's the power of a near-100% RTP game. But the recommended bankroll is much larger because those near-zero expected losses come with large variance. You need the buffer to survive the cold stretches that are statistically normal.
Does this calculator guarantee I won't lose more than the recommended bankroll?
No. The recommended bankroll covers approximately 87% of session outcomes within Β±1.5 standard deviations of expectation. Roughly 6β7% of sessions will lose more than the recommended bankroll even with correct play. This is normal variance, not a calculator failure. The recommendation is a planning benchmark, not a guarantee.
Why is the expected loss so small on a full-pay table?
Because 99.95% RTP means the house keeps only 0.05% of coin-in over the very long run. A $1,500 coin-in session theoretically loses $0.75 to the house edge. In practice, your session result will be dominated by variance β whether premium hands hit or don't β not by the tiny theoretical edge. The expected loss figure is accurate but almost irrelevant to single-session results.
What's the difference between "balanced" and "cautious" risk style?
The risk multiplier changes. Balanced uses ~100Γ your bet per hand as the recommended buffer β so at $5.00/hand that's $500. Cautious uses ~150Γ, giving $750. The larger buffer means you can absorb a longer cold streak without running out of session bankroll. Choose based on your emotional response to downswings β if losing 50 bets in a row would rattle your decision-making, use Cautious or higher.